地点：中央财经大学沙河校区主教102M

时间: 2018年10月20日

上午8:30-9:45

张轶凡(香港中文大学)

讲座题目：Moving“Umbrella”: Bureaucratic Transfers, Collusion, and Rent-seeking in China

摘要：The collusion between firms and government o?cials is ubiquitous but hard to empirically assess. This paper studies collusion by tracing the pattern of intercity investments after political turnovers. Exploring the feature of bureaucratic transfers in China and using a unique firm registry data, this paper documents a significant increase of new investments with a close tie to the moving leaders’ previous jurisdiction. Further empirical investigations find evidence consistent with collusion between leaders and firms: First, new registrations tying to moving leaders concentrate in high-renting sectors. Second, the firms tying to moving leaders have a higher survival rate provided that their patrons stayed in the same jurisdictions, but those firms are more likely to exit local markets once the patrons left. Thirdly, the connected firms tend to crowd out new entries and dampen innovation. And lastly, career-concerned motives seem to mitigate collusion.

主讲人简介： 张轶凡，香港中文大学经济系副教授。中国人民大学经济学学士、硕士，美国匹兹堡大学经济学博士，并在美国耶鲁大学从事博士后研究。兼任世界银行、亚洲开发银行咨询顾问和美国康奈尔大学中国经济研究中心研究员。研究兴趣包括国际贸易、产业组织和发展经济学等。研究成果发表于American Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of International Economics等国际知名期刊。

上午9:45-11:00

刘冲(北京大学)

讲座题目： The Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on Climate Change and Agricultural Production: Are there Long-run Adaptations?

摘要:Can man-made megaprojects, such as hydroelectric dams, cause permanent climate change by dramatically altering natural landscapes? Using a difference-in-differences empirical design,we confirm that the Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydroelectric dam in the world, has increased the air temperature in the reservoir region and caused an unexpected decrease in precipitation in the vast downstream region along the Yangtze River. This decline in precipitation has negatively affected the crop yields of rice in the downstream region, which is the main grain grown in this area. However, farmers’ adaptation to this long-run climate shock has been limited and slow. Instead of enhancing economic efficiency by switching to drought-resistant crops, engaging in non-farm employment or mechanizing production, they have chosen to significantly increase short-run factor inputs, such as land, labor and irrigation expenditures, in order to maintain their output of rice. As a result, the decrease in rice yields persists and has not recovered 10 years after the dam’s construction.

主讲人简介：刘冲, 男，山东人，1984年11月出生，北京大学经济学院助理教授，世界银行短期顾问。北京大学数学与经济学双学位（2007）、北京大学光华管理学院应用经济学博士（2013）、清华经济管理学院博士后（2015）。研究领域为公共经济学、发展经济学和政治经济学。研究兴趣包括公共经济学，发展经济学，政治经济学，应用微观经济学等,近年来在Economic Journal、International Journal of Industrial Organization、《经济研究》、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《金融研究》等国内外著名期刊发表论文20多篇。先后主持国家自然科学基金、农业部农村经济研究中心研究基金等多项科研课题。

上午11:00-12:15

戴觅(北京师范大学)

讲座题目： 需求与中国出口企业动态

摘要：本文采用2000-2011年微观层面的海关贸易数据考察中国出口企业在进入出口市场后的动态表现，并从需求角度解释企业出口的动态调整。通过比较同一企业-产品组合在不同市场的出口表现，本文能够识别出需求因素对于出口动态的影响。结果显示，随着对某市场出口年龄的增加，企业出口体现出以下动态特征：（1）退出率逐渐降低（2）出口数量不断增加，但增长率逐渐下降。（3）出口价格不断下降。（4）出口数量和出口价格变化的波动性减小。这些典型事实与基于需求学习解释企业出口动态的理论模型一致，而与基于消费者积累的理论模型相左。本文研究意味着在出口过程中对目的国市场需求的逐渐学习是驱动中国出口动态调整的重要因素。

主讲人简介：北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院副教授。美国哥伦比亚大学、美联储纽约银行访问学者。2013年毕业于北京大学国家发展研究院，主要研究方向为国际贸易与发展经济学。研究成果发表于Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, The World Economy 等国际期刊以及《管理世界》、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》等中文期刊。研究成果获得18届“安子介国际贸易研究优秀论文奖”。

下午2:00-3:15

纪珽 (中央财经大学)

讲座题目：Quantifying the "Pollution Haven": an Existing Effect but an Unsupported Hypothesis

摘要:We develop a full-_edged general equilibrium trade model with pollution as a by-product of production. We discipline it with standard parameters from established trade and environment literature, which are estimated from real dataper se. Our quantitative evaluation based on the model suggests that provided with an observable existence of thePollution Haven Effect, thePollution Haven Hypothesisis still unsupported because environmental policy stringency, as a determinant of pollution and abatement, is weak relative to other conventional sources of comparative advantages and does not fundamentally determine international division of labor. However, a reduction in trade costs would induce more world overall pollution just as the PHH predicts, but it is not a result of environmental policy stringency but simply because of re-organization of production across borders due to other comparative advantage forces.

主讲人简介：EMC易倍官方网站助理教授,清华大学本科, 加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)经济学博士学位, 研究成果发表于Journal of African Economies等国际期刊, 主持国家自然科学基金青年项目一项。

下午3:15-4:30

颜色(北京大学)

讲座题目：Elite or State: Grain Prices, Social Conflicts and Public Goods Provision in Eighteenth-Century China

摘要: State and community shape a society together. This paper documents and compares the function of the government and local elites in stabilizing fluctuations in grain prices in eighteenth-century China. Narrative evidence suggests that, while the government provided public goods including the ever-normal granary system, the elites also participated in multiple ways, including leading water project constructions, managing private granaries, and providing social relief. However, few studies have quantitatively compared the importance of these two players. We construct a prefecture-level panel data from 1742 to 1795 to examine the effect of the official granary system versus local elites. Preliminary results show that the effects differed across the country. While the government played a dominant role in the North, the elites effectively reduced price fluctuations in the Lower Yangzi.

主讲人简介：颜色于2008年在加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)获得经济学博士学位，随后加入了北京大学光华管理学院。他目前是应用经济系的研究教授。在此之前，他在北京大学分别获得国际经济学士学位和经济史硕士学位。颜色博士的研究专长在于经济史、发展经济学、宏观经济学和中国经济问题。颜色博士的研究获得国内外同行的关注。他的博士论文《Real Wages and Skill Premia in China, 1860 to 1936》获得第十五届世界经济史大会最佳博士论文奖，这是中国学者首次获此殊荣。他的论文发表在国内外著名学术期刊如“International Economic Review”、“Explorations in Economic History”、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等。他的研究获得美国国家自然科学基金、中国国家社科基金和教育部人文社科基金的资助。他还作为主持人承担了国家重修清史项目《清史?对外贸易志》的科研项目。他担任SSCI期刊“Australian Economic History Review”的副编审。在光华管理学院，颜色主要从事本科、MBA的《宏观经济学》、《中国经济专题》和博士生的《经济增长专题》、《经济史专题》以及国际合作部、高层培训项目等课程的教学工作。他曾经获得北京大学教学优秀奖和光华管理学院教学一等奖。

下午4:30-5:45

樊海潮(复旦大学)

讲座题目：FDI to Elude

摘要: How does domestic tax affect firms’ outward FDI (OFDI) decisions?

We address this question via a model in which firms of heterogeneous productivity make a choice between exporting and OFDI. We exploit a policy change in China that unifies corporate income tax rates through raising foreign firms’ but reducing domestic firms’ tax rates. Using a difference-in-differences estimator that compares the OFDI of foreign and domestic firms before and after the tax unification, we find that a higher corporate income tax rate increases the probability of firm OFDI. The facts that few destinations are tax havens and firms reduced domestic investment in China suggest that the OFDI decisions reflect firms’ capital relocation instead of profits shifting overseas.

主讲人简介：复旦大学经济学院副教授，香港科技大学经济学博士,多篇论文发表于国际一流期刊如Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of International Economics (同期两篇), Journal of Development Economics等。

本系列讲座获得2018年中央财经大学专题学术讲座项目资助。