讲座题目： Disguised Carry Trade and the Transmission of Global Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from China's Goods Trade Data

主讲人：林曙 教授 （香港中文大学）

讲座时间：2019年6月19日（周三）下午3:00-4:30

讲座地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区主教学楼702会议室

主讲人简介：林曙，经济学博士。现任香港中文大学经济系副教授。曾任复旦大学经济学院金融学教授，国际金融系系主任。林曙教授是孙冶方金融创新奖得主，国家自然科学基金优秀青年项目获得者。研究领域包括国际经济学、货币政策、中国经济和公司金融。研究成果发表于Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics 等众多国际顶尖期刊。

摘要：Currency carry trade disguised as goods trade can potentially channel external financial shocks to domestic economic environment, despite capital controls. We identify this channel in the context of post-GFC China using variations in product characteristics and a policy shock. We show that trade volumes of cost-efficient products responded significantly more to carry returns. However, such differential responses to carry returns vanished after the government’s clampdown on illicit capital flows. At the aggregate level, we demonstrate further that the surge in disguised carry trades led to a significant expansion of China’s shadow banking credit but not its traditional bank lending credit.

本次讲座是中央财经大学“龙马奋进·校庆70周年学术系列讲座”的组成部分，获得了2019年中央财经大学专题学术讲座项目资助。