讲座主题：Navigating Geopolitical Crises for Energy Security: Evaluating Optimal Subsidy Policies

主讲嘉宾：赵泓，南开大学经济学院副教授

时间：2023年11月23日（周四）9:30~11:30

地点：中央财经大学沙河校区二教207

主持人：苗壮 助理教授

点评人：梅冬州 教授

主办：EMC易倍官方网站

致谢: 本讲座获得2023年中央财经大学专题学术讲座资助计划支持

讲座内容：

Recent geopolitical crises, exemplified by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have underscored the vulnerability of nations heavily reliant on a solitary energy source or supplier, thereby emphasizing the imperative of energy resilience. However, existing integrated assessment models for environmental evaluation fail to adequately consider the environmental and economic impacts of geopolitical conflicts and do not sufficiently prioritize the significance of energy resilience in policymaking. This paper introduces a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model to examine these concerns. The findings illustrate that such disruptions precipitate a substantial decline in output, social welfare, and energy consumption. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mere anticipation of an energy cri- sis influences household behaviors, leading to a reduction in energy, output, and consumption volatility, while concurrently increasing volatility in social welfare. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes an optimal subsidy policy that incorporates energy resilience considerations. We establish that this policy should be contingent upon productivity levels, energy imports, and the economy’s responsiveness to economic shocks. Additionally, we demonstrate that the policy should be adaptable to prevailing economic conditions and the likelihood of an upcoming crisis.

嘉宾简介：

赵泓，南开大学经济学院副教授。博士毕业于加拿大麦吉尔大学，研究方向：开放宏观经济学，环境经济学。研究成果发表在国际权威期刊，Journal of International Economics (独立作者), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Economic Survey, International Review of Financial Analysis, Economic Modelling等。主持国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目。